Why has mortality in England and Wales been increasing? An iterative demographic analysis
Journal for the Royal Society of Medicine, 16 February 2017
- An examination of the causes and ages at death contributing to life expectancy changes between 2013 and 2015 in England and Wales has found that the long-term decline in mortality has reversed, with approximately 30,000 extra deaths compared to what would be expected if trends in 2006–2014 had continued.
- These excess deaths are largely in the older population, who are most dependent on health and social care. The major contributor, based on reported causes of death, was dementia but caution was advised in this interpretation.
Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 16 February 2017
- The four possible causes of mortality spikes in a population are proposed as; data artefact; environmental shock (eg natural disaster or extreme weather event); a major epidemic or a widespread failure of the health and social care system.
- Given limitations of the evidence and its complexity, the researches cannot reach a firm conclusion about what has happened, but they point to possible lines of further inquiry, and discount some possible explanations.
- While the reduced efficacy of the influenza vaccine being used may have played some role in the January 2015 mortality spike, this is likely to have been limited.
- The research excludes common sources of data artefact.
- Instead, the evidence points to a major failure of the health system, possibly exacerbated by failings in social care.
