Forecasting the care needs of the older population in England over the next 20 years

Forecasting the care needs of the older population in England over the next 20 years: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) modelling study.
Lancet DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30118-X 30 August 2018

• This study models the growing need for social care in older people using PACSim, a dynamic microsimulation model. It find that, in the next 20 years, the English population aged 65 years or over will see increases in the number of individuals who are independent but also in those with complex care needs. This increase is due to more individuals reaching 85 years or older who have higher levels of dependency, dementia, and comorbidity.

Modelling the growing need for social care in older people [Editorial]
Lancet DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(18)30143-9, 30 August 2018